The Rams should not be home underdogs plus other best bets f

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It feels Marlon Davidson Jersey so good to be back! Yes, it's me, Tom Fornelli, returning to your inbox for the first time since last Friday, but while it hasn't even been a week, it felt like a century. I mi sed you. And what a night to make my return. The NFL season starts tonight! You no longer have to pretend to care about preseason games or the . The real stuff starts tonight. We get our first glimpse at the defending Super Bowl champion going against a team many believe will host the Lombardi Trophy at the end of this season. It's an incredible matchup to start the year with, and I've got three bets I want to make tonight, but before we get to them, let's catch up on all the latest news. ... And now we get to do something I've been dying to do since February: bet an NFL game. The Hot Ticket Key Trend: The Rams were 3-0 ATS as underdogs last seasonThe Pick: Rams +2.5 (-110)I'm starting the NFL season by putting my foot down and betting on principle. The Rams are your defending Super Bowl champions, and they begin the season as home underdogs? This is not right! I don't care that the Bills are considered a Super Bowl favorite this season; I need to see them prove it before I bet on them as road favorites. Also, while it's Byron Murphy Women Jersey a new season, the Rams were underdogs three times last season and covered in all three games. In fact, they're 8-4 ATS as underdogs since the 2019 season. It's typically been a good place to bet them. But, more than the trends, I think this is just a case of the market overvaluing a team based on preseason expectations.The Bills are good, and barring an injury to , they'll be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. But they aren't so good that they should be favored on the road against the defending champs. I expect this game to finish below the posted total and be close throughout. I'll happily take the points and the home team in that situation.. More Rams vs. Bills picks The Pick: Under 44.5 Rushing yards (-115) --While we all know how good Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense are, its defense makes this team such a strong overall contender. The Bills were one of the best defenses John Miller Jersey in the NFL last year, and I don't expect that to change in 2022. That was the specifically the case stopping the run, as the Bills finished eighth in the league in defensive succe s rate against the run. But that's only part of the equation. The other part is that Cam Akers is fully healthy again but suffered a torn Achilles last season. You don't tend to see backs return with the same explosivene s they had before that injury, and Akers is also in a crowded backfield. He'll be splitting snaps with Darrell Henderson and po sibly tonight. The combination of Buffalo's defense and uncertainty surrounding Akers' usage make the under an intriguing bet. Key Trend: The Buffalo defense allowed the fewest yards per game last season. The Pick: Matt Stafford Longest Completion Over 37.5 yards (-111) --The Rams are at home and celebrating their Super Bowl title. I can't help but think they're going to take a deep Kenny Stabler Jersey shot or two for the vibes and po sibly out of nece sity. Well, there aren't many quarterbacks in the league I trust more with deep shots than . Stafford completed 43.2% of his pa ses of at least 25 air yards (yards thrown past the line of scrimmage). That ranked third in the league, but Stafford's 44 attempts were a lot more than either (17) or (29) -- the two QBs who finished ahead of him -- attempted. And while Odell Beckham isn't around, still is, and he commands a lot of attention from defenses. This allows other receivers to find open space in opposing secondaries, and when that happens, we know Stafford won't be afraid to take the shot. Michael Pittman Men Jersey Key Trend: Matt Stafford completed more pa ses of at least 25 air yards last season than every other QB but Josh Allen. .