What to Expect from China’s 20th Party Congress

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What to Expect from China’s 20th Party Congress



The NCCPC, which takes place every five years, is the highest-profile event in China’s political calendar, providing a forum for leadership and constitutional changes. This year’s event will have particular symbolic significance, being the first since the Party’s centenary in 2021.To get more news about China's 20th party congress, you can visit shine news official website.

It’s also likely to be one of the most unusual and important in the Party’s history, as it will confirm President Xi Jinping as leader for an unprecedented third term and underline the importance of his thinking, much of which has already been incorporated into the constitution.

But investors seeking signs of policy changes—such as an end to the zero-COVID policy, or an easing of regulations and further cyclical stimulus—are likely to be disappointed. That’s because the NCCPC is an important guide to long-term structural policy, rather than short-term cyclical policy.

For clues about short-term policy, investors should look to other bodies that sit within China’s policy framework. To do this, it helps to have an overview of how China’s government works.
The basic power division in China is between the Party and the state apparatus. In the Party hierarchy, the most important bodies are the NCCPC and the Central Committee. The NCCPC elects the Central Committee, while the general secretary, politburo and Politburo Standing

The highest-ranking body in the state apparatus is the National People’s Congress (NPC), which meets annually, typically in March. The NPC elects the president—a role which, since 1993, has been held by the Party’s general secretary. The president in turn nominates the premier or head of government (ratified by the NPC), who presides over the State Council.

The country’s two most powerful executive officers—General Secretary of the Party Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang—serve on the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. As we discuss below, the Politburo Standing Committee and State Council, along with the NCCPC, are the key policy bodies for investors to watch.
What to Expect From the NCCPC
Three outcomes are likely from the upcoming NCCPC, in our view: further consolidation of President Xi’s power, a number of personnel changes at senior levels of government, and broad confirmation of structural policy settings.

One reason this year’s NCCPC is different from its predecessors is that it follows the introduction in 2021 of the “two establishes” idea, which establishes Xi as the core of the Party and its Central Committee, and the guiding role of what is officially known as Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era.

Xi’s thoughts on economics—such as his view that China faces a deteriorating external situation (particularly in its relations with the United States)—also set the scene, together with the downward trend in economic growth and attempts to transition to a more consumption-driven growth model.

The most interesting personnel changes will be those affecting members of the Politburo Standing Committee, particularly Premier Li Keqiang, who is nearing the two-term limit of his time in office. He is not quite at retirement age so, in theory, could step down as premier into another role.

Investors should note, however, that personnel changes, in aggregate, may have positive implications. Investment growth has often ticked upward after an NCCPC as newly promoted local officials, keen to shore up their career credentials, encourage economic activity (Display).

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